Mes: julio 2022

As almost every professional bettor will tell you, backing heavy favourites is a sure fire way to the poorhouse. That’s common knowledge, right? Perhaps, but there’s one problem with that type of thinking: it’s dead wrong.

The received wisdom is the linesmakers skew their odds on heavy favourites because the public love betting on the best teams. The bookies no doubt see a flurry of parlays involving clubs like Chelsea, Barcelona and Juventus every weekend. Surely there’s value in taking the underdog in these situations, isn’t there?

In fact, numerous studies have shown that blindly backing long shots is a losing proposition in the long term. To see why that is the case, we have to understand how a bookmaker operates. Since the bookies take most of their action on short-priced favourites, it’s often assumed they are exposed to big liabilities if all the hot teams win. While this is sometimes the case, and many bookmakers suffer months of huge losses, there are several ways a bookie can protect himself.

It’s important to remember that most heavy favourites are combined in parlays involving at least three teams. A bookmaker only needs one loser to take his customer’s money. As a result, there’s little need to lower the odds on a «public» team. Many sportsbooks will even inflate the odds of a hot favourite to attract new customers, safe in the knowledge that parlay players won’t hurt their bottom line.

If the favourite’s odds are an accurate reflection of it’s true probability of winning, the bookmaker must make adjustments elsewhere. That usually means offering worse odds on the underdog and the draw. Understanding the concept of theoretical hold can make this clearer.

When creating lines, a sportsbook will offer odds on each team that give it a slight edge, ensuring a profit no matter how the game turns out. This is called the Theoretical Hold and is expressed as a percentage. It represents the combined amount of customers’ bets that the bookmaker expects to keep.

It’s called theoretical because in reality a bookmaker rarely has balanced action on all sides. If a bookie takes the bulk of his bets on a heavy favourite, he can offer it at a more generous price and accept a smaller profit margin. Short-priced favourites generally have small margins, but high volumes. Bigger odds mean bigger margins. There’s little incentive for a bookie to offer competitive odds on a big underdog if he doesn’t expect much betting interest in that team.

For evidence of this, look no further than the betting exchanges. At Betfair, for example, the theoretical hold on a soccer money line is usually 1-2%, compared with around 11% at traditional bookmakers. Because the hold is so low and the percent market is close to 100%, the exchanges represent an almost perfect market. They can give us a closer indication of the true probability of an event happening. The following table shows the odds available at several bookmakers for an upcoming match between Qatar and Argentina:

Bookmaker Qatar Draw Argentina Theoretical Hold

Betfair +1800 +660 -500 1.72%

Nordicbet +1100 +445 -500 9.10%

Bet365 +1000 +400 -500 11.05%

Interwetten +900 +400 -667 14.5%

Admiral +850 +365 -455 12.28%

Two things are immediately striking. An exchange like Betfair has significantly better odds on Qatar and the draw, which are the less probable outcomes of this game. But Betfair’s odds on Argentina, the heavy favourite, are in line with the prices offered by traditional bookmakers. In fact, even though Betfair’s market has razor thin margins, it can’t beat the odds on Argentina offered by Admiral, a bookie with a theoretical hold over 12%!

What can we learn from this? If the exchanges are a nearly perfect market, they prove that heavy favourites are fairly priced at the traditional bookmakers, but underdogs are massively underpriced and poor value. Some research has shown that backing all short priced favourites (at -500 or greater) is a profitable proposition in the long term. Now we can understand why. As a general rule, only bet on long shots at the exchanges; if you like to play favourites, stick with the traditional bookies.

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Real Madrid is a professional football club based in Madrid, Spain. It is the most successful team in Spanish football and was voted by FIFA as the most successful club of the 20th century, having won a record thirty-one La Liga titles, seventeen Spanish Cups, a record nine European Cups and two UEFA Cups.

Real Madrid was founded in 1902 and has spent all of its history in the top flight of Spanish football. In the 1940s, the club, the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium and the Ciudad Deportiva were rebuilt following the Spanish Civil War. During the 1950s, the club was reckoned as a major force in both Spanish and European football.

In the 1980s, the club had one of the best teams in Spain and Europe, winning two UEFA Cups, five Spanish championships in a row, one Spanish cup and three Spanish Super Cups. The team plays on home ground in an all-white equipment. The team also has two more equipments: blue and black. Real’s stadium is the 80,354-person-capacity Santiago Bernabeu in downtown Madrid, where it has played since 1947.

The club holds long-standing rivalries with some other clubs; the most notable of these is with FC Barcelona, the two teams regularly contesting the match called «El Clasico». Unlike most European football clubs, Real Madrid’s members have owned and operated the club since its beginning. The club is the world’s richest football club (EUR351million) in terms of revenue and the second most valuable (worth over EUR950million as of 2008 study).

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Real Madrid fans may be stewing over the recent string of success enjoyed by their hated rivals, FC Barcelona, however, even Barca cannot compete with the storied and successful history of Real Madrid C.F. They are actually the most successful club in the history of Spanish football, and they were voted by FIFA as being the most successful club team from anywhere in the world for all of the 20th century. Certainly, those are very lofty achievements, and expectations are always high for Real Madrid to continue on with that, which is one of the reason Real Madrid tickets are in such demand.

So how can one club be voted as the most successful of any in the entire world for a whole century? To begin with, Real Madrid was in existence right from the start, having been founded in 1902. In their history, they have won a total of 31 La Liga titles, while never being relegated from the top level of La Liga in Spanish football. In addition to 31 league titles, they have 18 Copa Del Rey cup victories, 8 Spanish Super Cup titles, and they have won a record 9 UEFA Championships.

Real Madrid won back to back La Liga titles in 1932 and 1933, but it was really in the 1950s and 1960s when a period of unprecedented success was enjoyed. They won four straight La Liga titles from 1955-1958, then won eight straight from 1961 through 1969! It’s the kind of run that would be near impossible to duplicate today.

Still, in the 1980s, Real Madrid really put on a dominant run that can equal to any single team’s run in the history of global football. The team known as La Quinta del Buitre won five straight La Liga titles, and two UEFA championships to go along with that, as well as numerous other cups, championships and titles during that time.

At the turn of the 21st century, Real Madrid had one of the most star-studded squads of all time. This team was nicknamed as the Los Galacticos team, and featured David Beckham, Ronaldo, Zinedine Zidane from France and longtime star and all-time Madrid goal scoring leader, Raul. The team was able to bring home the La Liga championship in 2003, and the UEFA trophy in 2002, but after that didn’t live up to their lofty expectations as it took several more years to win another major title.

Of course, today the club is still strong, and is one of the best not only in La Liga but also in all of Europe. The team is headed up by Brazilian star Kaka and Portuguese superstar Cristiano Ronaldo. Were it not for Lionel Messi on Barcelona, Ronaldo would probably be universally regarded as the best player in the game.

There is no team anywhere in the world with a more glorious history and track record than Real Madrid. Being voted as the most successful club team of the 20th century by FIFA says it all, and that tradition is stronger than ever today with the likes of Ronaldo on the squad. The competition with FC Barcelona is fiercer than ever, and that fuels the team and its fans to continue playing and cheering harder than ever before too. If you want to see what the club can do in the second year of Jose Mourinho’s rule then order your Real Madrid tickets in advance and be sure for the match of your life!

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After expressing a desire to play for Barcelona by the player himself and his close associates at Zenit St Petersburg, Barcelona has not let the player’s words go unheard, as now it has been made known that an official inquiry has been made regarding the player.

This somewhat confirms that Emmanuel Adebayor is very close to a Milan switch. Recent reports by the player’s agent has revealed that the Togolese striker’s deal with Milan is about 80 percent complete. Barcelona were apparently keen on bringing the lanky striker in, but the player has expressed more interest in a move to the Rossoneri, which could see him join his old teammate Mathieu Flamini, who joined Milan earlier this transfer season on a free transfer.

Zenit’s sporting director Konstantin Sarsaniya has stated that the Catalans have made a formal proposal for Arshavin, and that they will begin talks when the player returns to Zenit, from his international duties with Russia.

Many Barca fans are craving to see this stumpy striker at the Camp Nou, as he is seen as an ideal replacement for Deco, who is likely to leave Barcelona shorty for either Chelsea or Inter according to reports.

Arshavin is a very versatile player and can play many positions including second striker, winger and attacking midfielder. With him in the lineup, Barca could experiment with various formations to utilize him to help the team perform to the best of their ability. Arshavin is a good player with good qualities, but for me the best quality he possesses, is his desire to play for Barcelona. Without desire nothing is achieved.

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